St. Louis, November 1-2, 2011 – We’re live at the Soy & Grain Trade Summit, and looking forward to a ton of great information! Day 1 will include general session speakers, and throughout Day 2, we’ll attend a mix of sessions from the Trade/Transport & Production tracks for you.
Sunrise at the Gateway Arch and Mississippi River, at the Hyatt Regency St. Louis at the Arch, host to the Soy & Grain Trade Summit.
DAY 1 – GENERAL SESSION
Hyatt Regency Hotel St Louis The Arch, home to the 2011 Soy & Grain Trade Summit
Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. – Welcome Address & Opening Remarks: And we’re off!
Robert Thompson - Soy & Grain Trade Summit 2011 - Dynamics of Agriculture
Tuesday, 8:45 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: Robert Thompson, Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs takes the stage to discuss global food security, animal protein demand and the changing feed grain market, and global investment in ag production.
Tuesday, 9:05 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: Loving the murmur from the back of the room, as the translation service team converts this presentation into the native languages of this global audience.
Tuesday, 9:15 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: Robert surmises that global warming will push the arctic temperatures of Canada (specifically, the plains of Saskatchewan and Alberta) up such that those areas will become prime “bread basket” land for North America.
Tuesday, 9:16 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: As population gravitates toward urban centers, farmers will be outbid for fresh water, and as the volatility of extreme conditions increases, the need for efficient, drought tolerant crop varieties.
Tuesday, 9:20 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: We need to double food system productivity by making unproductive soils productive, increasing the genetic potential of crops, reducing post-harvest losses.
Tuesday, 9:25 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: Future world market price trends will depend on ag research keeping up with global demand.
Tuesday, 9:27 a.m. – Dynamics of Agriculture Production Worldwide: Q&A had several very good questions about trends in food production, including a question about college students entering the workforce. Robert recommended that students enroll in research and worldwide marketing.
Tuesday, 9:30 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: Thomas Mielke was unable to attend the conference in person, but prerecorded a video on Monday to discuss crucial developments in world oilseed supply & demand, which is now playing on the projector screens.
Tuesday, 9:35 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: The agriculture industry is in a structure deficit at the moment, and will need to catch up.
Tuesday, 9:38 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: Prices of oil seeds are increasing sharply, peaking, and retreating slowly, in line with global events, including record global production and the EU market/recession scare. Prices have moved higher since the EU resolved the Greek debt crisis.
Tuesday, 9:49 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: Soybean demand in the US is starting to become dominated by biofuels.
Tuesday, 9:51 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: Soy and palm oil accounts for over 50% of oilseed production worldwide. Rapeseed oil continues to decline.
Tuesday, 9:53 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: We will see a scarcity in oilseed in 2012, due to a slowing down of growth in plantings to 2.4 Mn ha because of increased acreage competition from grains.
Tuesday, 10:01 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: Acreage competition will continue between oilseed and grains/sugars. Corn in the U.S. will not be able to yield any acres due to demand. Land values have doubled as a result of this fight for acres.
Tuesday, 10:16 a.m. – World Oilseed Supply & Demand: Thomas joined the conference via audio conference for Q&A with the audience. When asked how he feels about the affect that political biofuels mandates have on oilseed demand, Thomas cautiously replied that biofuels mandates should reflect global supply/demand, and should be adjusted in the case of shortages.
Attendees at the morning coffee break - Soy & Grain Trade Summit 2011 - St. Louis
Tuesday, 10:17 a.m. – Break: Brief Coffee Break, and then we’re back for the keynote address with a former U.S. Senator from Missouri, Christopher S. “Kit” Bond.
Tuesday, 10:24 a.m. – Exhibit Hall: Some of the technology on display here today is totally amazing. We’re really looking forward to the Agriculture Production Technology session tomorrow afternoon.
Keynote address from former U.S. Senator from Missouri, Christopher S. “Kit” Bond at the Soy & Trade Summit 2011 - St. Louis
Tuesday, 10:40 a.m. – Keynote Address: Former U.S. Senator, Christopher S. Bond, now partner at Thompson Coburn LLP, takes the stage to address attendees at the Soy & Grain Trade Summit on global agriculture development and smart power.
Tuesday, 11:03 a.m. – Keynote Address: Sen. Bond believes that free trade policy is key to agricultural business development in places like South America, and China/Southeast Asia.
Tuesday, 11:04 a.m. – Keynote Address: Sen. Mr. Bond believes that TPP will ensure that the U.S. remains a vital player, and will be the most important agreement since NAFTA.
Tuesday, 11:17 a.m. – Keynote Address: To avoid ostracism, biotech researchers must spend time outside the laboratory talking to the populace and politicians about what it is they’re developing, why, and how it will help them.
Tuesday, 11:22 a.m. – Keynote Address: Q&A was brief on this one, but the Senator encouraged everyone to vote for the politicians who “get it” next fall.
- Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Moderator Phillipe de Lapérouse (HighQuest Partners) introduces panelists Steve Elmore (Pioneer Hi-Bred International,) Bill Emmons (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,) Stéphane Frappat (Sodrugestvo,) and Mark Zenuk (NGP Global Adaptation Partners)
Tuesday, 11:25 a.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Moderator Phillipe de Lapérouse (HighQuest Partners) introduces panelists Steve Elmore (Pioneer Hi-Bred International,) Bill Emmons (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,) Stéphane Frappat (Sodrugestvo,) and Mark Zenuk (NGP Global Adaptation Partners) for the executive round table on the outlook for global agricultural production, trade and processing, investment capital, food security concerns in China/Middle East, and new challenges and opportunities accross the value chain.
Tuesday, 11:44 a.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: 50% of the soybean growth and consumption in the world happens in China. The middle class in China is the same size as the entire United States. Their changing dietary structure due to increased income creates heavy demand on the food supply chain.
Tuesday, 11:47 a.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Market volatility is not going to get any better, but managing it will get easier with the right people, technology, and ideas.
Tuesday, 11:58 a.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Ag commodities will be softer moving forward, and we could possibly see a new price plateau very soon, though we are still looking at inflated prices.
Tuesday, 12:03 p.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Soybeans are extremely expensive, and many farmers in the U.S. and South America are making a lot of money off of it. With the price of crude high relative to natural gas, there will still be a profit made on ethanol sans government subsidies. If you want to provide food for the world, those prices will eventually need to come down.
Tuesday, 12:03 p.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Because of external factors like weather, it’s very difficult to maintain a supply/demand equilibrium.
Tuesday, 12:10 p.m. – Panel Discussion on Ags Outlook: Question: If we’re looking a soft economy worldwide, are we going to see a change back to more vegetable protein from animal protein. How severe will the softness be? Answer: It seems unlikely that people will revert to grains-centric diets from meat, because the smaller economies, though soft, are still growing.
SolArc's Booth giveaways at the Soy & Grain Summit 2011 - St. Louis, Missouri
Tuesday, 12:21 p.m. – Lunch Break
Trade Policy Panel at Soy & Grain Trade Summit 2011 - Gary Martin (North American Export Grain Association,) Sharon Bomer Lauritsen (Office of the US Trade Representative,) and Yang Gouqiang (Consulate General of the PRC - Chicago)
Tuesday, 1:57 p.m. – Trade Policy, The Ag Industry, and Global Food Security: After citing the infamous St. Louis Siesta Syndrome, Moderator Greg Duerksen (Kincannon & Reed) welcomes the attendees back from lunch and introduces the panelists for the afternoon panel: Gary Martin (North American Export Grain Association,) Sharon Bomer Lauritsen (Office of the US Trade Representative,) and Yang Gouqiang (Consulate General of the PRC – Chicago,) who will discuss Free Trade Agreements, WTO/Doha Round implications, global demand and public policy, biotech industry concerns, sustainability issues, and policy standards for agricultural production and trade.
Tuesday, 2:10 p.m. – Trade Policy, The Ag Industry, and Global Food Security: Yang Gouqiang presents on the relationship between China and the US agricultural industry, and reiterates that China is steadfast in their WTO commitment to support free trade. Average increase in annual consumption has been over 17% in China for the past few years, as more and more Chinese move into the middle class. The average Chinese food palette is changing from grain-based to meat-based, and China is in a food deficit. Yang believes this trend will only continue. The growing economy and demand in China is too great for existing logistics and supply chain to handle.
Tuesday, 2:22 p.m. – Trade Policy, The Ag Industry, and Global Food Security: Susan Bomer Lauritsen presents prepared remarks on the advances in public policy for the agriculture industry. In October, the US signed three free trade agreements with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia, and Mexico has dropped the last of their retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products. This will contribute to future GDP growth for the United States. Russia is expected to join the WTO in the next 12 months, and will be subject to all terms of their commitment to that body.
Tuesday, 2:43 p.m. – Trade Policy, The Ag Industry, and Global Food Security: Gary Martin discusses how FTAs, WTOs, etc. affect the ags industry.
Tuesday, 3:42 p.m. – Climate Change and Sustainability: Three part panel series -
- Arable Land: Ensuring productivity
- Water: Stewardship of an increasingly political resource
- Inputs: How will access to seed, fertilizer and crop protection chemicals change?
Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. – End of Day
DAY 2 – BREAK-OUT SESSIONS
Keiner Plaza - St. Louis, Missouri
Lin Tan presents on the Chinese market for soy & corn - Soy & Grain Trade Summit 2011 - St. Louis
Wednesday, 8:30 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Steve Elmore, Peter Goldsmith, and Lin Tan are here to speak to us about world production trends. Peter Goldsmith begins.
Wednesday, 8:35 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Some Brazilian growers have converted to a 90-day soybean variety, and are planting corn the rest of the year, essentially for free. The drawbacks are that the growing seasons are so tight that any anomaly in rainfall will throw off planting, harvesting and pollination, which affects yield. Still, it’s sustainable.
Wednesday, 8:40 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Brazil will be outputting soybeans will be the leading soybean producer by 2030. The U.S. and China will be the leaders for corn.
Wednesday, 8:45 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Poultry consumption will increase dramatically over the next 20 years, equally increasing the need for efficient feedstock production in China, the US and Brazil, where those chickens will be produced.
Wednesday, 8:55 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Peter finishes up – Brazil will be a major meat exporter, enabled by large supplies of cheap feedstock, but their infrastructure is still constraining production.
Wednesday, 8:58 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Steve Elmore takes the stage to discuss production acceleration over the past 10 years.
Wednesday, 9:01 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: World production has reached record levels for the past 5 years, and grown to several billion acres.
Wednesday, 9:05 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Ethanol production will probably level off for the next several years, but demand will increase.
Wednesday, 9:14 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Looks like volatility and acreage battles are going to continue for the next two years, despite market sentiment.
Wednesday, 9:16 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Even if the Southern Hemisphere has a banner year, which seems unlikely, we’re looking at a very tight stock year this year.
Wednesday, 9:17 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Steve’s closing – High volatility is going to continue, prices will increase to ration demand, and things will be tough moving forward.
Wednesday, 9:19 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Lin Tan takes the stage to discuss China, and begins with an amusing anecdote about how most of the world is looking to China to purchase, but it isn’t necessarily going to happen.
Wednesday, 9:23 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Soybean imports will increase slightly for China in the next three years, but corn and rice will remain relatively the same.
Wednesday, 9:35 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: Interesting story about a many in China (many years ago) who rode his bicycle 100km to the next village to trade a bag of wheat for two bags of corn, using one bag to feed his family, and then bringing a bag back to sell to his village — the original Chinese commodity trader!
Wednesday, 9:40 a.m. – Panel: World Production Trends: Soybean & Corn: The moderator returns to point out that the world is turning into a giant black hole of protein and feedstock demand. More people outside of the U.S. are moving into the middle class, and these people like to eat meat.
World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: Patrick Westoff
Wednesday, 10:32 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: Patrick Westoff (University of Missouri) takes the stage to present on wheat production trends. According to him, wheat yields are growing as strongly as corn, despite the fact that the area where wheat is planted has decreased.
Wednesday, 10:40 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: Global wheat stocks are healthy, but prices are higher because the corn market is so tight.
Wednesday, 10:43 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: We should expect continued volatility, and continued economic growth in wheat, due to low corn stocks, inelastic demand, continued increase in feedstock demand, slowed growth in wheat-based ethanol, and price retreats from 2011 peaks in grain, oilseed, and sugar.
Wednesday, 10:48 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: World population growth rate is slowing over time, though the absolute number of people is increasing. If we can sustain yield growth in crop production, we will actually need less acreage in 2030 than we do today; however, ethanol production may end up increasing the need for that acreage overall.
Wednesday, 10:50 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: Global consumption per capital of wheat and rice will remain relatively constant through 2016. Yields will continue to increase.
Wednesday, 10:51 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: World production and use will continue to increase, and production will remain slightly ahead.
Wednesday, 10:52 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: There’s a fair chance we’ve seen the peak of wheat prices this year.
Wednesday, 10:54 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: Weather, world economic growth, corn market developments, public policy, and new technologies would all affect outlook for wheat moving forward.
Wednesday, 10:59 a.m. – World Production Trends: Wheat and Other Grains: Q&A – Spring wheat is a much tighter market, and have the potential for higher prices. There is good reason to be bullish on grains markets right now, but there’s always going to be a downside. There are concerns about water availability that would limit continued yield growth in wheat.
Wednesday, 11:23 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Steve Censky (American Soybean Association) takes the podium to address the three recent FTAs, asynchronous biotech approvals…
Wednesday, 11:26 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? South Korea FTA gained the U.S. access to 49 million new consumers, 300 MT food bean market, and a $1t economy. 2/3 of farm goods will become tariff-free.
Wednesday, 11:29 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Colombia FTA allows the U.S. to regain market share lost to Canada, and 70% of farm goods will be duty-free. Panama FTA formalizes a great deal of the duty-free operations already in place.
Wednesday, 11:30 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? 120 biotech events commercialized in 24 crops, and 148m ha planted in 2010. Only 33 countries have approval processes in place.
Wednesday, 11:32 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Need to make sure that countries let scientists drive the approval policies, and that they are consistent with Codex approved guidelines.
Wednesday, 11:35 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? EU’s Renewable Energy Directive relies on an outdated approval system. Biodiesel made from U.S. soy reduces emission by 58%; bilateral negotiations have been requested.
Wednesday, 11:36 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Mike Steenhoek (Soy Transportation Coalition) takes the stage to discuss the relationship between the grain and railroad industries.
Wednesday, 11:41 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Soy shippers have commended the rail industry for the response and recovery from the flooding in the Midwest, customer service, and service improvements, but have criticized railroads for service reliability, a flat-footed response to the recession, and switching rates. The top-rated rail company according to shippers is Union Pacific, followed by BNSF and Canadian National.
Wednesday, 11:45 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Congress has been largely unsuccessful in advancing rail regulations, and the playing field has largely shifted to the STB. It seems unlikely that anything will get passed in Congress in the next few years.
Wednesday, 11:49 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? CSTB conducted a hearing about competition scarcity in the rail industry, and also reduced the complaint filing fee from $20k to $350. This makes mediation a more open process. There is very, very little market appetite to risk hamstringing the rail industry.
Wednesday, 11:50 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Patrick Westhoff takes over to discuss the federal budget in the context of he ags industry.
Wednesday, 11:51 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? it’s going to be very difficult to push legislation through that would increase our federal deficit. RFS changes will likely cause no, or very little decrease in ethanol production.
Wednesday, 11:54 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? There is a proposed $32b in net cuts to farm and conservation programs over the next 10 years.
Wednesday, 11:58 a.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? If Congress can finally agree on a bill, it seems likely that it would include the elimination of direct payments, a new program for shallow loses, a new program that would increase crop production, and might also reduce the maximum size of CRP.
Wednesday, 12:00 p.m. – How is Trade and Regulatory Policy Impacting U.S. Ag Production? Q&A – Shallow loss provision has been somewhat controversial, and this has likely been the impetus for discussion on an possible alternative option. Japan, Mexico, Canada have been very quick in their biotech approval processes.
Attendees visit exhibitor booths during a lunch break at the Soy & Grain Trade Summit 2011 in St. Louis Missouri
Wednesday, 12:15 p.m. – Lunch Break
Iani Adrian Chihaia presents Global Markets: Eastern Europe & Mahgreb
Wednesday, 1:45 p.m. – Global Markets: Eastern Europe & Mahgreb: Iani Chihaia presents on near-term regional demand forecast for ag commodities, and how U.S. producers and traders improve access to growing regional markets.
Wednesday, 1:50 p.m. – Global Markets: Eastern Europe & Mahgreb: The EU is (at the moment) the world’s largest importer of grains, and Eastern Europe is likely to be a major area of growth in swine and poultry production.
Wednesday, 1:53 p.m. – Global Markets: Eastern Europe & Mahgreb: Eastern Europe will likely see significant growth in poultry and swine production in the near future. Grain production has increased, and corn production put Romania in the top-ten producing countries list in 2010.
Wednesday, 1:57 p.m. – Global Markets: Eastern Europe & Mahgreb: 68% of soybean meal in the EU is imported. The U.S. holds 28% of that import market.
Wednesday, 1:45 p.m. – Global Markets: Eastern Europe & Mahgreb: Short-term outlook – We can expect to see an increase in soybean meal this year and in 2012. The EU will drive global soy meal to record levels in 2011-12. Europe’s financial crisis, practical biotech solutions and unforeseen GM events, and industry consolidation, and ongoing concerns of animal disease outbreaks could all potentially affect this outlook.
Night at the Old St. Louis Courthouse after the Soy & Grain Trade Summit 2011
